The Number of Differing Bitcoin Opinions Makes It Hard to Predict

June 16, 2022

One of the things that arguably makes bitcoin so hard is the fact that it’s so unpredictable. The currency goes up and down like the sun. The only difference is that you can usually tell when the sun is going to rise and set, whereas bitcoin seems to have a mind all its own.

It’s Hard to Know Where Bitcoin Will Go

The recent crypto crash has got everyone in an uproar. Bitcoin, for example, was trading at a whopping $69,000 per unit just seven months ago in November of 2021. This was the highest price point for the asset, but now, it looks like bitcoin is trading for more than 50 percent less. The currency is down about $40,000 at the time of writing and “boasting” a price of around $29,000.

One of the other things, however, that makes bitcoin difficult is that there are so many opposing opinions. One person says one thing, another person says something different. One analyst thinks the currency has bottomed out, while a separate one predicts more doom and gloom for the world’s number one digital asset by market cap.

One person who falls into the latter category is Josh Olszewicz, head of research at investment manager Valkyrie. He claims that volatility must settle down soon. Otherwise, the currency is going to see even more flash crashes. He commented in an interview:

We can look at things like the 200-week moving average, which is around $22,000. We can look at the realized price, which is the average price of coins that have moved on-chain, which is around $23,800. This [movement to hit bottom] will probably take at least all Q3, perhaps Q4 as well, if it were to happen this year.

While he believes institutional players have a very important role in the future of crypto, he commented that much of the space largely depends on retail investors. He says now that prices are crashing, many of them are jumping in to test the waters and see if they can learn more about the digital space. He commented:

Much of the volume is certainly led by institutional-size flows. We’ve seen this rise and swell before, and as individuals again learn about bitcoin for the first time, the cycle could repeat. Since 2018, the average number of bitcoin-holding wallets has increased from over 27 million to more than 41 million today. We’re seeing a lot of people not only staying here but getting excited again about what’s going on in the space.

Some Are Excited Despite the Price Drops

By contrast, companies like JPMorgan are ignoring the crash and now claim that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are their choice for “alternative assets.” In a recent report, the bank even stated:

We replace real estate with digital assets as our preferred alternative asset class along with hedge funds.

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