These Five Altcoins Are Outrunning BTC: History Suggests They Can't Run Forever

These Five Altcoins Are Outrunning BTC: History Suggests They Can't Run Forever

May 20, 2019

Bitcoin prices have settled to $7850, according to BitMEX, forming what some describe as a “bart” pattern over the course of the last week.  Traders appear to be engaging in price discovery, and volatility is continuing the climb.

As shown below, BTC started its bull rally April 1st 2019:

Price of BTC on April 1st, 2019

Bitcoin’s value increased by approximately 90% in that time frame and its share of the market increased by 7 percentage points. Its dominance topped out last week at 60%, but alts have been outperforming BTC since then.

Some coins that have been outperforming BTC since April 1st despite the bull rally. By identifying these coins, we can create a hypothesis that some of them could regress towards the mean and underperform BTC after these aberrant overvaluations.

After all, our similar analysis last week on 5 altcoins primed to outperform BTC was wildly successful, and the 5 coins we identified using a similar strategy outperformed BTC by an average of 15% in the next 24 hours.

On to the analysis….

We took the top 300-coins on April 1st and compared them to the top-200 coins on May 20th, to identify those that have been steadily outperforming BTC. 

Five coins stood out as outliers:

Based on these data, we expect to see BCH, LINK, SOLVE, ABT and CLAMS to lose some of their value, at least when measured in satoshis. But, as always, past experience does not guarantee future results; some of these tokens could  continue to outperform Bitcoin in the long-term, or even replace it.

If the fundamentals and sentiment surrounding these coins have genuinely improved, we could expect them to remain ahead of BTC. But if previous analysis is any indication, we wouldn’t be surprised to see bitcoin catching back up.

Note that this analysis is not based on these coins’ fundamental strengths or qualities, merely on relative value over time. Not financial advice. As always, please read the disclaimer on this page.

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